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Real Estate Market Forecast for 2009Federal Reserve Announcement Drives Mortgage Rate DropDriven by the news that the The Federal Reserve plans to spend an additional $750 billion to buy mortgage-backed securities, the weekly average rate borrowers were quoted on Zillow Mortgage Marketplace for thirty-year mortgages fell to 5.06 percent, down from 5.21 percent the week prior, according to the Zillow Mortgage Rate Monitor, compiled by leading real estate Web site Zillow.com(R). Foreclosures Increased Over 80% in 2008Foreclosure filings on more than 2.3 million properties reported in 2008NEW YORK, Feb. 5, 2009 - A total of 3,108,364 foreclosure filings in 2008 -- auction sale notices, bank repossessions, and default notices -- 1,275,791 U.S. Properties over the course of the year; an 82% increase in all properties from 2007, and a 240% increase in the total number of properties from 2006, according to ForeclosureListings.com, one of the largest foreclosure listings providers. Continue reading details about 2008 foreclosures.
Americans Lose $1.4 Trillion in Home Values in Q4; More Than was Lost in All of 2007Eighth Consecutive Quarter of Declines is Worst So Far: Home Values Fall 11.6% in 2008; One in Six Homeowners is Underwater, According to Q4 2008 Zillow (R) Real Estate Market Reports Home values in the United States fell for the eighth consecutive quarter, declining 11.6 percent during 2008 to a Zillow Home Value Index(1) of $192,119, according to the fourth quarter Zillow Real Estate Market Reports(2), which encompass 161 metropolitan areas. The declines mean that U.S. homeowners lost a cumulative $3.3 trillion(3) in home values during 2008, with much of that loss coming in the fourth quarter. Homeowners lost $1.4 trillion during the fourth quarter alone; more than the $1.3 trillion lost during all of 2007. Since the housing market's peak in 2006, $6.1 trillion in home values have been lost. Continue reading about the US home report. Existing-Home Sales to Stabilize Before Upturn in Second Half of 2009Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors(R)." Continue reading... Bankrate: Inflation Fears Nudge Mortgage Rates HigherFixed mortgage rates moved higher for the second consecutive week, with the average conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate now at 6.21 percent. According to Bankrate.com's weekly national survey of large lenders, the average 30-year fixed mortgage has an average of 0.35 discount and origination points. Continue reading... First American LoanPerformance Releases House Price IndexFirst American LoanPerformance, a member of The First American Corporation family of companies and a leader in residential mortgage data and analytics for the mortgage industry and Wall Street, today announced the release of its August 2007 LoanPerformance Home Price Index (HPI). The LoanPerformance HPI provides a comprehensive set of monthly home price indices and median sales prices covering 7,376 ZIP codes, 956 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSA) and 655 counties in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. The index, which is the most comprehensive available in the industry, is reported five weeks after each month ends. See the report and download a copy... Mixed Results for Existing-Home Sales; Mortgages ImprovingSingle-family existing-home sales were stable in October while the condo sector was down, according to the National Association of Realtors. Lingering effects of the credit crunch were a drag on sales but the mortgage situation has improved significantly. Total existing-home sales -- including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops -- eased by 1.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million units in October from a downwardly revised level of 5.03 million in September, and are 20.7 percent below the 6.27 million-unit pace in September 2006. Continue reading... Mortgage problems will continue to hamper pending home salesPending sales of existing- homes activity will be dampened near-term as mortgage disruptions continue to impact the housing market, according to the National Association of Realtors( R). The Pending Home Sales Index*, a forward-looking indicator, fell 6.5 percent to a reading of 85.5 from an upwardly revised 91.4 in July, based on contracts signed in August. It was 21.5 percent below the August 2006 index of 108.9. Continue reading... Tucson, AZ real estate market shows moderationThe whole mortgage mess is turning into a real made for TV political extravaganza. And, with the elections a year away many things can happen. The government wasn't going to bail out anyone and inflation was the big concern. Now, the politician's are tripping over each other with ways to solve the financial problems. The local real estate market from my point of view is still moving, albeit slow. I have written a few deals recently and the sellers seem to not want to face reality and lower their price, or they don't watch the news. I spoke to a couple of appraisers and they agreed that this market is just as hard as couple of years ago when the market was on a rampage. When the Tucson, Arizona real estate market was red hot 25-40% of the sales were to investors. Now the market is slowing down and my guess is the majority of investors are out of the market. It's back to a real market where buyers are buying homes to live in and enjoy. Continue reading... 2008 Housing Forecast Changed Slightly Due to Impact From Tighter LendingHousing activity this year will be somewhat lower than in earlier forecasts, with clearer analysis of the effects of stricter lending standards and a decline in subprime mortgage origination, according to the latest projections by the National Association of Realtors (R). Lawrence Yun, NAR senior economist, said one benefit for the market is the disappearance of speculative behavior, which contributed to abnormal price growth. "Home buyers today are purchasing for the long-term, generally with a realistic expectation of modest gains over time," Yun said. "Housing first and foremost is shelter. Second, it's a long-term investment that slowly builds the greatest amount of wealth for most families. It's good that we're getting beyond the tendency of some buyers to view housing as a temporary asset to accumulate short-term wealth, which is not to be expected in a normal market." Existing-home sales are likely to total 6.29 million this year and 6.49 million in 2008, compared with 6.48 million last year. New-home sales are projected at 864,000 in 2007 and 936,000 next year, lower than the 1.05 million in 2006. Housing starts should total 1.46 million units this year and 1.52 million in 2008, down from 1.80 million last year. Continue reading...
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Brian L Beebe, GRI
