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BMI estimates that the 2007 music ringtone market will dip to $550 million (U.S.) in retail sales, down $50 million (U.S.) from calendar year 2006. BMI pegged the market at $600 million (U.S.) in calendar year 2006; $500 million (U.S.) in 2005; $245 million (U.S.) in 2004 and $68 million (U.S.) in 2003, respectively.
BMI projects that ringbacks will generate approximately $65 million (U.S.) in retail content revenues in 2007. This is BMI s first market estimate of the long-awaited rollout of the ringback tone market. A ringback tone is a musical work that is performed to the caller when they place a call to a participating mobile subscriber.
BMI s estimates are based on more than 520 million individual, detailed ringtone transactions analyzed by the organization over the past 12 consecutive quarters. BMI tracks census sales data on more than 325 outlets for the sale of mobile entertainment in the U.S. BMI FORECASTS RINGTONE MARKET DOWN 8% IN 2007; RINGBACK TONE MARKET AND AUDIOVISUAL STREAMING UP “As we forecasted last year, the ringtone market matured in 2006. The slowdown in ringtone growth, however, was partially offset by the first wave of promising U.S. growth in ringback tones,” said BMI Vice President of New Media and Strategic Development, Richard Conlon. “We believe that the ringtone market’s growth has leveled off and the novelty phase has ended. We envision increased revenue opportunity in the streaming sectors of the mobile entertainment market, ranging from ringtones to audiovisual cellular phone TV-style offerings.” BMI is an American performing right organization that represents more than 300,000 songwriters, composers and publishers in all genres of music. With a repertoire of more than 6.5 million musical works from around the world, operates on a non-profit-making basis, collecting license fees from businesses that use music, which it then distributes as royalties to the musical creators and copyright owners it represents. NEW YORK, March 27, 2007 |
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Today, consumers typically sign up for cellular service and select a phone made by a cell phone manufacturer. But soon, service providers may start offering their own brand of cell phone. Would consumers select these phones, or want to stay with the brands they know?
The latest survey of cell phone users (1) by Harris Interactive(R) shows that a slight majority (54%) of U.S. adult cell phone users say they have no preference for an existing brand or a new one offered by their service provider, while the rest differ in opinion between interest in a new brand (27%) and an existing brand (19%).
These are the results of an online survey of 1,870 U.S. adult cell phone users conducted by Harris Interactive between July 14 and 18, 2006.
About two-thirds (64%) of U.S. adult cell phone users agree that more competition among cell phone manufacturers will lead to product innovation and 40 percent believe it will ensure more choices in the marketplace. Other benefits of having cell phones and service from the same company could be increased compatibility between the handsets and the networks, according to about half (48%) of adult cell phone users, as well as overall lower plan costs (32%).
There is some skepticism about cellular service providers offering their own brand of phones, and approximately one-third (29%) think this actually may result in decreased competition and higher prices in the long run. Similar numbers (30%) agree that smaller wireless service providers who cannot manufacture their own phones will go out of business, and another one in five (21%) feels that wireless service providers lack the design skills to build quality handsets.
Joe Porus, Vice President and Chief Architect for the Harris Interactive Technology Practice said, "Cell phone manufacturing by the large wireless service providers is the next logical step in this market. If they can pull this off, it will give their bottom lines a nice lift, but a failed entry here could start a new phase of consolidations in the industry. This apple is likely too tempting to leave on the tree -- new cell phones could be coming your way soon."
(1) Respondents who indicated they have a cell phone
"If you were to consider buying a new cell phone, assuming that the cell phone has the same features, pricing and warranty, how likely would you be to buy a cell phone manufactured by a wireless service provider compared to a handset manufacturer?"
Base: Adults with a cell phone. Total %
Much/Somewhat More Likely to Buy from Handset Manufacturer (Net) 19
Much more likely to buy from a handset manufacturer 11
Somewhat more likely to buy from a handset manufacturer 8
Much/Somewhat More Likely to Buy from Wireless Service Provider (Net) 27
Much more likely to buy from a wireless service provider 16
Somewhat more likely to buy from a wireless service provider 11
Just as likely to buy from a wireless service provider as a handset manufacturer 54
"How much do you agree or disagree with the following statements?"
Base: Adults with a cell phone
Neither
Strongly/Some- Strongly/Some- Agree
what Agree what Disagree nor
(NET) (NET) Disagree
% % %
Increased competition in the manufacture of cell phones will lead to more product innovation (better features/functionalities). 64 8 28
The wireless service providers will design cell phones that will workbetter with their networks (result in better service). 48 16 36
Having wireless service providers manufacture their own cell phones will ensure more choices in the marketplace. 40 19 41
My overall cell phone plan (including service and handset) would cost less if I got both the service and handset from a single provider. 32 21 47
Smaller wireless service providers who can't make their own cell phones will go out of business. 30 30 40
In the long run, the impact of wireless service providers making cell phones will be less competition and higher prices for cell phone service. 29 27 44
Wireless service providers lack the design skills to build good cell phones. 21 29 50
Current handset manufacturers have built a history of success that would be ruined if wireless service providers start to make them. 20 31 49
About Harris Interactive Technology Research
The Harris Interactive Technology Research group doesn't just monitor and measure the industry. It interacts with the thought leaders who drive technology, telecom and e-business everyday and provides insights from a variety of vertical perspectives. Using the group's unique knowledge, experience, and expertise in both the telecommunications and information technology sectors, Harris Interactive asks the right questions, confirms business issues, and designs and implements studies to provide clients with actionable results.
Methodology
This online survey was conducted within the United States between July 14 and 18, 2006 among 1,870 adult cell phone users (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online.
All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting.
With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.
With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 1,870 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/-3 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.
About Harris Interactive
Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides research-driven insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods.
The company has built what could conceivably be the world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris in France and through a global network of independent market research firms. The service bureau, HISB, provides its market research industry clients with mixed-mode data collection, panel development services as well as syndicated and tracking research consultation. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at http://www.harrisinteractive.com/.
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